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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 23

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(5:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 87-J.Ferguson to WAS 15 for 8 yards (32-T.Burgess, 48-S.Chandler).

The Three Options

GO +2.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.32 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 23, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 33, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model