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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 77

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(2:31) 6-A.Cole punts 49 yards to DEN 28, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-M.Mims to DEN 39 for 11 yards (19-D.Turner).

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.77 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 77, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 34, worth -1.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model