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Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
@
LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Antonio Pierce
Sunday 2024-01-07 · 16:25 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

DEN
45.0%
LV
55.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV defense: -0.115 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • LV offense: -0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • QB edge to DEN: Aidan O'Connell (LV) -0.087 vs Jarrett Stidham (DEN) -0.003 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DEN defense: -0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 19
–
LV 21
Projected margin: LV by 2 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

DEN

Chris Manhertz TE Out Illness
Mike McGlinchey T Out Ribs

LV

Josh Jacobs RB Out Quadricep
Michael Mayer TE Out Toe
Thayer Munford T Doubtful Knee
Brandon Facyson CB Questionable Illness
Jakob Johnson FB Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 14
–
LV 27

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:53 TD LV (1:53) 16-J.Meyers scrambles left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – LV 6
  • Q2 10:44 TD DEN (10:44) (Shotgun) 4-J.Stidham pass short left to 10-J.Jeudy for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – LV 7
  • Q2 07:14 FG LV (7:14) 2-D.Carlson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. DEN 7 – LV 10
  • Q2 00:11 TD LV (:11) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 7 – LV 16
  • Q4 15:00 TD LV (15:00) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep left to 16-J.Meyers for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 7 – LV 23
  • Q4 10:13 TD DEN (10:13) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 33-J.Williams. 33-J.Williams right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 13 – LV 24
  • Q4 02:23 FG LV (2:23) 2-D.Carlson 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. DEN 14 – LV 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 11 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (14:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to LV 21, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 8 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:25) 6-A.Cole punts 66 yards to DEN 11, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 9 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:58) 9-R.Dixon punts 59 yards to LV 18, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 3-D.Carter to LV 22 for 4 yards (48-M.Fraboni).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 6 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 79%

    (7:14) 2-D.Carlson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 19 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (3:25) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to LV 21, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 8 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:31) 6-A.Cole punts 49 yards to DEN 28, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-M.Mims to DEN 39 for 11 yards (19-D.Turner).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 15 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (1:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 64 yards to LV 2, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-57-B.Niemann.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 7 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (14:03) 6-A.Cole punts 59 yards to DEN 14, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-M.Mims ran ob at DEN 29 for 15 yards (45-J.Johnson).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 16 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (10:04) 9-R.Dixon punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (8:36) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to DEN 16, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-M.Mims to DEN 29 for 13 yards (36-C.Bolton). PENALTY on DEN-37-R.Moss, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 23.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 3 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 70%

    (3:30) (Shotgun) 4-J.Stidham pass incomplete deep middle to 89-B.Johnson.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 99%

    (10:13) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 33-J.Williams. 33-J.Williams right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 3 at the 3 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 99%

    (2:23) 2-D.Carlson 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 75 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-J.Stidham pass deep left to 89-B.Johnson to DEN 46 for 21 yards (5-D.Deablo) [9-T.Wilson].