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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 73

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(14:03) 6-A.Cole punts 59 yards to DEN 14, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-M.Mims ran ob at DEN 29 for 15 yards (45-J.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.91 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 73, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 31, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model