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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Denver Broncos
4th & 3 at the 36
Denver Broncos 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 17
What Actually Happened
(3:30) (Shotgun) 4-J.Stidham pass incomplete deep middle to 89-B.Johnson.
The Three Options
GO
+0.77 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.73 EP
- 52% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 36, worth -2.00 EP
KICK
+0.44 EP
- 70% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
- 30% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT
-0.22 EP
- Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
