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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 2

Denver Broncos 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 24

What Actually Happened

(10:13) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 33-J.Williams. 33-J.Williams right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 2, worth +0.53 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model