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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 77

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(9:58) 9-R.Dixon punts 59 yards to LV 18, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 3-D.Carter to LV 22 for 4 yards (48-M.Fraboni).

The Three Options

GO -2.68 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.03 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 77, worth -4.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 34, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model