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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 3

Las Vegas Raiders 24 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(2:23) 2-D.Carlson 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.00 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 3, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.03 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -1.07 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP