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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 34

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(:40) 7-M.Gay 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.51 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 34, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 44, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model