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Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
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Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
Saturday 2024-01-06 · 20:15 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

HOU
41.5%
IND
58.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • IND defense: -0.052 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • C.J. Stroud (HOU): +0.132 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • HOU defense: -0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 20
–
IND 23
Projected margin: IND by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

HOU

Noah Brown WR Out Back
Jonathan Greenard DE Out Ankle
Robert Woods WR Questionable Hip
Will Anderson DE Questionable Ankle
Andrew Beck FB Questionable Calf
Maliek Collins DT Questionable Hip
Sheldon Rankins DT Questionable Ankle
Laremy Tunsil T Questionable Groin

IND

Chris Lammons CB Questionable Ankle
Kenny Moore CB Questionable Back
Zack Moss RB Questionable Forearm
Braden Smith T Questionable Knee
Ryan Kelly C Questionable Ankle
Quenton Nelson G Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 23
–
IND 19

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:19 FG IND (9:19) 7-M.Gay 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. HOU 0 – IND 3
  • Q1 09:15 TD HOU (9:15) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 12-N.Collins for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-D.Buckner]. HOU 6 – IND 3
  • Q2 02:00 TD HOU (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 47-A.Beck for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 13 – IND 3
  • Q2 00:40 FG IND (:40) 7-M.Gay 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. HOU 14 – IND 6
  • Q3 10:06 TD IND (10:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right guard for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 14 – IND 12
  • Q3 03:44 FG HOU (3:44) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 17 – IND 14
  • Q4 13:37 FG IND (13:37) 7-M.Gay 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. HOU 17 – IND 17
  • Q4 06:23 TD HOU (6:23) 26-D.Singletary up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 23 – IND 17
  • Q4 00:08 SAF IND (:08) (Punt formation) 11-C.Johnston right end pushed ob in End Zone for -23 yards, SAFETY (37-A.Speed). HOU 23 – IND 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 9 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 93%

    (9:19) 7-M.Gay 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 8 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (7:30) 8-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to HOU 24, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 25-D.King.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (3:38) 11-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to IND 14, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 1-J.Downs.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 10 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:40) 8-R.Sanchez punts 52 yards to HOU 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 25-D.King pushed ob at HOU 35 for 15 yards (81-M.Alie-Cox; 83-K.Granson).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 45%

    (15:00) 11-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to IND 1, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-37-D.Ross.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 3 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (11:25) 8-R.Sanchez punts 63 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 25-D.King to HOU 30 for 15 yards (50-S.Olubi).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:58) 11-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to IND 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 2 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (6:32) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to HOU 31, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 25-D.King pushed ob at HOU 43 for 12 yards (50-S.Olubi).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 74%

    (:40) 7-M.Gay 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:18) 11-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to IND 24, Center-46-J.Weeks. 1-J.Downs to IND 34 for 10 yards (35-J.Hansen).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 15 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (11:56) 11-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to IND 7, Center-46-J.Weeks. 1-J.Downs to IND 13 for 6 yards (43-N.Hewitt).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (9:08) 11-C.Johnston punts 62 yards to IND 11, Center-46-J.Weeks. 1-J.Downs to IND 20 for 9 yards (43-N.Hewitt).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 9 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 63%

    (5:42) 7-M.Gay 57 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 2 at the 33
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 76%

    (3:44) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 3 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 95%

    (13:37) 7-M.Gay 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 15 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 95%

    (1:06) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass incomplete short left to 31-T.Goodson.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 2 at the 77 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (:08) (Punt formation) 11-C.Johnston right end pushed ob in End Zone for -23 yards, SAFETY (37-A.Speed).