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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 39

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(5:42) 7-M.Gay 57 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.99 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 39, worth -1.87 EP
KICK +0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 48, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model