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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 33

Houston Texans 14 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(3:44) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.85 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 33, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.81 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 43, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP