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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 16

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 7-M.Gay 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.09 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 16, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 26, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model