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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 15

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Houston Texans 23

What Actually Happened

(1:06) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass incomplete short left to 31-T.Goodson.

The Three Options

GO +2.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.21 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 15, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +2.25 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 25, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model