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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 77

Houston Texans 23 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(:08) (Punt formation) 11-C.Johnston right end pushed ob in End Zone for -23 yards, SAFETY (37-A.Speed).

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth -0.05 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 77, worth -1.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 34, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.43 EP