Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 72

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Houston Texans 7

(2:40) 8-R.Sanchez punts 52 yards to HOU 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 25-D.King pushed ob at HOU 35 for 15 yards (81-M.Alie-Cox; 83-K.Granson).

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.33 EP
65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 72, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model