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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 55

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:39) 5-T.Townsend punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.69 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 55, worth -3.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 16, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP