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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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LAC Home

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Giff Smith
Sunday 2024-01-07 · 16:25 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 35.0

Win Probability

KC
55.2%
LAC
44.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC offense: -0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • LAC defense: +0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • QB edge to LAC: Easton Stick (LAC) -0.123 vs Blaine Gabbert (KC) -0.256 EPA/dropback (KC starting Blaine Gabbert in place of Patrick Mahomes)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • KC defense: -0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

KC 24
–
LAC 20
Projected margin: KC by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

KC

Rashee Rice WR Out Hamstring
Donovan Smith T Out Neck
L'Jarius Sneed CB Out Calf
Kadarius Toney WR Out Hip
Patrick Mahomes QB Doubtful Ankle
Nick Bolton LB Questionable Wrist
Michael Danna DE Questionable Coaching
George Karlaftis DE Questionable Coaching
Trent McDuffie CB Questionable Shoulder
Isiah Pacheco RB Questionable Quadricep

LAC

Keenan Allen WR Out Heel
Joey Bosa DE Out Foot
Justin Hollins LB Out Shoulder
Nicholas Williams DT Out Shoulder
Kenneth Murray LB Doubtful Shoulder
Zion Johnson G Doubtful Neck
Deane Leonard CB Questionable Heel
Tanner Muse LB Questionable Knee
Stone Smartt TE Questionable Shoulder
Tuli Tuipulotu DE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 13
–
LAC 12

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:14 TD KC (5:14) (Shotgun) 2-E.Stick sacked at KC 8 for -3 yards (90-C.Omenihu). FUMBLES (90-C.Omenihu) [90-C.Omenihu], touched at KC 7, RECOVERED by KC-21-M.Edwards at KC 3. 21-M.Edwards for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – LAC 0
  • Q2 04:07 FG KC (4:07) 7-H.Butker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 10 – LAC 0
  • Q2 02:48 FG LAC (2:48) 11-C.Dicker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. KC 10 – LAC 3
  • Q2 00:04 FG LAC (:04) 11-C.Dicker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. KC 10 – LAC 6
  • Q3 04:15 FG LAC (4:15) 11-C.Dicker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. KC 10 – LAC 9
  • Q4 04:09 FG LAC (4:09) 11-C.Dicker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. KC 10 – LAC 12
  • Q4 00:54 FG KC (:54) 7-H.Butker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 13 – LAC 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (14:12) 5-T.Townsend punts 44 yards to LAC 25, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 29%

    (11:10) 2-E.Stick up the middle to LAC 49 for 2 yards (90-C.Omenihu).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 3 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (3:09) 16-J.Scott punts 43 yards to KC 11, Center-47-J.Harris. 17-R.James to KC 32 for 21 yards (20-D.Marlowe).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 17 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (:35) 5-T.Townsend punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (14:16) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to KC 28, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 17-R.James.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 6 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 42%

    (10:39) 5-T.Townsend punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:45) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to KC 30, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 17-R.James.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 5 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 35%

    (6:57) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 29-L.Perine. 29-L.Perine right end to LAC 41 for 9 yards (31-N.Niemann).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (4:07) 7-H.Butker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 2 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 79%

    (2:48) 11-C.Dicker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 12 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (13:19) 16-J.Scott punts 40 yards to KC 17, Center-47-J.Harris. 17-R.James to KC 19 for 2 yards (33-D.Leonard). FUMBLES (33-D.Leonard), and recovers at KC 17. 17-R.James pushed ob at KC 17 for no gain (31-N.Niemann).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 4 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 38%

    (10:17) 5-T.Townsend punts 34 yards to LAC 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 17 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 88%

    (4:15) 11-C.Dicker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 3 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 48%

    (:15) 5-T.Townsend punts 37 yards to LAC 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:40) 16-J.Scott punts 40 yards to KC 15, Center-47-J.Harris. 17-R.James to KC 18 for 3 yards (33-D.Leonard).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (11:02) 5-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to LAC 14, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 6 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 65%

    (7:52) (Shotgun) 2-E.Stick pass short left to 89-D.Parham to KC 27 for 11 yards (27-C.Conner) [31-N.Jones].

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 2 at the 2 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 99%

    (4:09) 11-C.Dicker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 24 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 89%

    (:54) 7-H.Butker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 2 at the 67 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59%

    (:19) (Shotgun) 2-E.Stick pass incomplete short left to 1-Q.Johnston.