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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 69

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 5-T.Townsend punts 44 yards to LAC 25, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 69, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 27, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP