4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 50

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:57) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 29-L.Perine. 29-L.Perine right end to LAC 41 for 9 yards (31-N.Niemann).

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.78 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.84 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model