Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 57

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(13:19) 16-J.Scott punts 40 yards to KC 17, Center-47-J.Harris. 17-R.James to KC 19 for 2 yards (33-D.Leonard). FUMBLES (33-D.Leonard), and recovers at KC 17. 17-R.James pushed ob at KC 17 for no gain (31-N.Niemann).

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.15 EP
71% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 57, worth -3.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model