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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 53

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(11:10) 2-E.Stick up the middle to LAC 49 for 2 yards (90-C.Omenihu).

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.04 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 53, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.09 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 15, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model