Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 55

Los Angeles Chargers 9 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

(13:40) 16-J.Scott punts 40 yards to KC 15, Center-47-J.Harris. 17-R.James to KC 18 for 3 yards (33-D.Leonard).

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.79 EP
64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 55, worth -2.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model