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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 57

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 9

What Actually Happened

(11:02) 5-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to LAC 14, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.98 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 17, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP