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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 38

Los Angeles Chargers 9 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(7:52) (Shotgun) 2-E.Stick pass short left to 89-D.Parham to KC 27 for 11 yards (27-C.Conner) [31-N.Jones].

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.76 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 38, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 47, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model