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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 2

Los Angeles Chargers 9 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(4:09) 11-C.Dicker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +3.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.15 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 2, worth +0.35 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP