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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 24

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 12

What Actually Happened

(:54) 7-H.Butker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +1.51 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 34, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model