4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 54

Los Angeles Rams 7 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(1:48) 42-E.Evans punts 51 yards to SF 3, Center-46-C.Tinker. 3-R.McCloud to SF 10 for 7 yards (14-C.Durant).

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.40 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP