Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- SF offense: +0.240 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- LA offense: +0.066 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- SF defense: -0.100 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
- QB edge to SF: Sam Darnold (SF) -0.105 vs Carson Wentz (LA) -0.133 EPA/dropback (SF starting Sam Darnold in place of Brock Purdy; LA starting Carson Wentz in place of Matthew Stafford)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 18
LA
SF
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:31 TD SF (7:31) 25-E.Mitchell right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 0 – SF 6
- Q1 01:59 TD LA (1:59) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 17-P.Nacua for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-7-C.Ward, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. LA 6 – SF 7
- Q2 07:04 TD SF (7:04) 14-S.Darnold up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 7 – SF 13
- Q2 00:16 TD SF (:16) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 10-R.Bell for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 7 – SF 20
- Q3 04:50 TD LA (4:50) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 16-T.Johnson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 13 – SF 20
- Q4 05:02 TD LA (5:02) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz up the middle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 19 – SF 20
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 LA 4th & 2 at the 34Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58% p(FG) 68%
(3:25) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 87-D.Allen to SF 24 for 10 yards (33-L.Ryan).
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Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 28Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71% p(FG) 80%
(10:43) 24-J.Mason left tackle to LA 25 for 3 yards (44-A.Witherspoon; 43-J.Johnson).
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Q2 SF 4th & 8 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 91%
(4:22) 4-J.Moody 38 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
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Q2 LA 4th & 4 at the 54Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EPp(convert) 48%
(1:48) 42-E.Evans punts 51 yards to SF 3, Center-46-C.Tinker. 3-R.McCloud to SF 10 for 7 yards (14-C.Durant).
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Q3 SF 4th & 14 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(1:10) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 47 yards to LA 19, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.
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Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 43Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 44%
(12:14) 11-C.Wentz up the middle to SF 41 for 2 yards (69-S.Joseph).
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Q4 LA 4th & 4 at the 35Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 65%
(10:02) (Shotgun) 24-R.Freeman left end pushed ob at SF 31 for 4 yards (5-R.Gregory). San Francisco challenged the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at SF 42 for -7 yards (48-O.Burks).
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Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 52Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 22%
(7:56) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 36 yards to LA 16, Center-46-T.Pepper. 81-A.Trammell pushed ob at LA 29 for 13 yards (26-I.Oliver).
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Q4 LA 4th & 2 at the 15Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55% p(FG) 94%
(5:40) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 5-T.Atwell to SF 12 for 3 yards (0-S.Womack).
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Q4 SF 4th & 17 at the 82 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(4:00) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 61 yards to LA 21, Center-46-T.Pepper. 81-A.Trammell to LA 34 for 13 yards (36-J.McNichols; 53-D.Winters).
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Q4 LA 4th & 12 at the 57 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(1:08) 42-E.Evans punts 45 yards to SF 12, Center-46-C.Tinker. 3-R.McCloud to SF 22 for 10 yards (97-M.Hoecht, 54-O.Fatukasi).