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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 35

Los Angeles Rams 13 – San Francisco 49ers 20

What Actually Happened

(10:02) (Shotgun) 24-R.Freeman left end pushed ob at SF 31 for 4 yards (5-R.Gregory). San Francisco challenged the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at SF 42 for -7 yards (48-O.Burks).

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.64 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model