Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 57

Los Angeles Rams 21 – San Francisco 49ers 20

(1:08) 42-E.Evans punts 45 yards to SF 12, Center-46-C.Tinker. 3-R.McCloud to SF 22 for 10 yards (97-M.Hoecht, 54-O.Fatukasi).

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +0.69 EP
69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 57, worth -1.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model