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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 34

Los Angeles Rams 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:25) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 87-D.Allen to SF 24 for 10 yards (33-L.Ryan).

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.68 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.94 EP
KICK +0.26 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model