4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 52

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(14:11) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 88-D.Goedert (58-B.Okereke).

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.55 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 52, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.97 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 15, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model