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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
@
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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
Sunday 2024-01-07 · 16:25 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -4.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

PHI
62.2%
NYG
37.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.173 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to PHI: Tyrod Taylor (NYG) -0.037 vs Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.155 EPA/dropback
  • PHI offense: +0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • PHI defense: +0.129 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.029 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PHI 24
–
NYG 19
Projected margin: PHI by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

PHI

Darius Slay CB Out Knee
DeVonta Smith WR Out Ankle
D'Andre Swift RB Questionable Illness

NYG

Jason Pinnock S Out Toe
Deonte Banks CB Doubtful Shoulder
John Michael Schmitz C Questionable Shin

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 10
–
NYG 27

Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:57 FG NYG (6:57) 21-M.Crosby 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. PHI 0 – NYG 3
  • Q2 09:42 TD NYG (9:42) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – NYG 9
  • Q2 05:13 TD NYG (5:13) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – NYG 16
  • Q2 01:53 TD NYG (1:53) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short left to 86-D.Slayton for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – NYG 23
  • Q3 01:15 FG PHI (1:15) 4-J.Elliott 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 3 – NYG 24
  • Q4 10:21 TD PHI (10:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 16-Q.Watkins for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 9 – NYG 24
  • Q4 03:42 FG NYG (3:42) 21-M.Crosby 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. PHI 10 – NYG 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 13 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (13:15) 6-J.Gillan punts 43 yards to PHI 17, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 8 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:11) 10-B.Mann punts 54 yards to NYG 16, Center-45-R.Lovato. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 27 for 11 yards (48-P.Johnson, 45-R.Lovato).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (6:57) 21-M.Crosby 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 1 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (1:49) 6-J.Gillan punts 55 yards to PHI 9, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-35-J.Corbin. PENALTY on NYG-35-J.Corbin, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 9.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 3 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 22%

    (14:11) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 88-D.Goedert (58-B.Okereke).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (8:12) 10-B.Mann punts 55 yards to NYG 30, Center-45-R.Lovato. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at NYG 45 for 15 yards (41-N.Morrow).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 12 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:08) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to NYG 24, Center-45-R.Lovato. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 27 for 3 yards (57-B.VanSumeren; 81-G.Calcaterra).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 10 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:12) 6-J.Gillan punts 44 yards to PHI 20, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 13 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 40%

    (11:45) 10-B.Mann punts 41 yards to NYG 3, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-57-B.VanSumeren.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 8 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:09) 6-J.Gillan punts 43 yards to PHI 16, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 9 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 92%

    (1:15) 4-J.Elliott 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 2 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (13:54) 6-J.Gillan punts 43 yards to PHI 11, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 18-B.Covey to PHI 19 for 8 yards (41-M.McFadden).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 2 at the 3 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (3:42) 21-M.Crosby 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 26 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 83%

    (2:04) 21-M.Crosby 45 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.