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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 13 at the 60

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(13:15) 6-J.Gillan punts 43 yards to PHI 17, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.42 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 60, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 19, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model