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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 59

New York Giants 24 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(6:09) 6-J.Gillan punts 43 yards to PHI 16, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.60 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 59, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 18, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model