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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 18

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New York Giants 24

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 4-J.Elliott 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.26 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 18, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 28, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model