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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 54

New York Giants 24 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(13:54) 6-J.Gillan punts 43 yards to PHI 11, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 18-B.Covey to PHI 19 for 8 yards (41-M.McFadden).

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.46 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 54, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 16, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP