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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 26

New York Giants 27 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(2:04) 21-M.Crosby 45 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.23 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 36, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model