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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 6

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(6:57) 21-M.Crosby 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +2.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.44 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 6, worth +0.52 EP
KICK +2.41 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model