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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 64

New York Giants 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 6-J.Gillan punts 55 yards to PHI 9, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-35-J.Corbin. PENALTY on NYG-35-J.Corbin, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 9.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.21 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 64, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 22, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP