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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 13 at the 59

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:36) 11-J.Stout punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback. PENALTY on PIT-83-Co.Heyward, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.03 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model