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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
BAL Home

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Saturday 2024-01-06 · 16:30 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.0 O/U 34.0

Win Probability

PIT
35.9%
BAL
64.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: +0.160 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to PIT: Tyler Huntley (BAL) -0.095 vs Mason Rudolph (PIT) +0.126 EPA/dropback (BAL starting Tyler Huntley in place of Lamar Jackson)
  • BAL defense: -0.125 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • PIT offense: -0.028 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 17
–
BAL 23
Projected margin: BAL by 6 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

PIT

Minkah Fitzpatrick S Questionable Knee
Elandon Roberts LB Questionable Pectoral
Trenton Thompson S Questionable Neck

BAL

Odell Beckham WR Out Not injury related - resting player
Malik Harrison LB Out Groin
Marlon Humphrey CB Out Calf
Daryl Worley S Out Ankle
Kevin Zeitler G Out Knee
Lamar Jackson QB Out Not injury related - resting player
Zay Flowers WR Doubtful Calf
Ronald Darby CB Questionable Illness
Arthur Maulet CB Questionable Hip
Brandon Stephens CB Questionable Ankle
Kyle Hamilton S Questionable Knee
Tylan Wallace WR Questionable Knee
Ar'Darius Washington S Questionable Pectoral

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 17
–
BAL 10

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:41 TD PIT (2:41) (Shotgun) 22-N.Harris up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – BAL 0
  • Q2 02:26 TD BAL (2:26) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass deep right to 80-I.Likely for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 7 – BAL 6
  • Q4 15:00 TD PIT (15:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass deep middle to 18-D.Johnson for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 13 – BAL 7
  • Q4 03:17 FG PIT (3:17) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 17 – BAL 7
  • Q4 00:20 FG BAL (:20) 9-J.Tucker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout. PIT 17 – BAL 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 4 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 18%

    (11:44) 6-P.Harvin punts 34 yards to BAL 19, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 16-T.Wallace.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 3 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (10:20) 11-J.Stout punts 64 yards to PIT 10, Center-69-T.Ott. 19-C.Austin to PIT 24 for 14 yards (30-T.Simpson).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:45) 11-J.Stout punts 51 yards to PIT 21, Center-69-T.Ott. 19-C.Austin to PIT 37 for 16 yards (69-T.Ott).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 8 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (15:00) 6-P.Harvin punts 26 yards to BAL 35, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 13 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:36) 11-J.Stout punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback. PENALTY on PIT-83-Co.Heyward, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 20.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (5:18) 6-P.Harvin punts 52 yards to BAL 29, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-42-J.Pierre.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:27) 11-J.Stout punts 56 yards to PIT 25, Center-69-T.Ott. 19-C.Austin MUFFS catch, and recovers at PIT 15. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at PIT 36 for 21 yards (30-T.Simpson).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 15 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (8:30) 11-J.Stout punts 57 yards to PIT 27, Center-69-T.Ott. 19-C.Austin to PIT 34 for 7 yards (69-T.Ott).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 19 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (5:40) 6-P.Harvin punts 46 yards to BAL 18, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 22-D.Williams.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 9 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 22%

    (2:57) 11-J.Stout punts 40 yards to PIT 11, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 8 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 26%

    (10:18) 11-J.Stout punts 40 yards to PIT 9, Center-69-T.Ott. 19-C.Austin to PIT 43 for 34 yards (21-B.Stephens).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 18%

    (7:50) 6-P.Harvin punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 7 at the 7 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (3:17) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 42 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 43%

    (2:03) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley up the middle to PIT 36 for 6 yards (25-E.Rowe).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 14 at the 18 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 92%

    (:20) 9-J.Tucker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.