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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 81

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(5:18) 6-P.Harvin punts 52 yards to BAL 29, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-42-J.Pierre.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.57 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 81, worth -4.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.11 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 38, worth -2.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP