Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 15 at the 84

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

(8:30) 11-J.Stout punts 57 yards to PIT 27, Center-69-T.Ott. 19-C.Austin to PIT 34 for 7 yards (69-T.Ott).

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.52 EP
67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model