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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 74

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:20) 11-J.Stout punts 64 yards to PIT 10, Center-69-T.Ott. 19-C.Austin to PIT 24 for 14 yards (30-T.Simpson).

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.68 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model