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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 49

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(10:18) 11-J.Stout punts 40 yards to PIT 9, Center-69-T.Ott. 19-C.Austin to PIT 43 for 34 yards (21-B.Stephens).

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.98 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.54 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model