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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Baltimore Ravens
4th & 1 at the 42
Baltimore Ravens 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17
What Actually Happened
(2:03) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley up the middle to PIT 36 for 6 yards (25-E.Rowe).
The Three Options
GO
+1.73 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.69 EP
- 29% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 42, worth -0.64 EP
KICK
+0.71 EP
- 43% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.55 EP
- 57% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT
-0.20 EP
- Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.20 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
