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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 14 at the 18

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(:20) 9-J.Tucker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +3.82 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +2.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.90 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.13 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model