Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 72

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

(1:45) 11-J.Stout punts 51 yards to PIT 21, Center-69-T.Ott. 19-C.Austin to PIT 37 for 16 yards (69-T.Ott).

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
56% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model